Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_delay
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:02:37 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,424,961
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET: This market is about the total kills in Game 4. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total kills in Game 4 is 28 or more. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under". If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, resolution will be based on the total kills in the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for total kills in Game 4 of the LYON vs. FURIA Esports matchup at MSI Playoffs is evenly split, with a 50% probability for both 'Over' and 'Under' outcomes. The neutral valuation reflects high uncertainty due to the dynamic nature of esports matchups and the potential for game-specific variables to skew results.
A bullish outcome (28+ kills) could materialize if both teams engage in aggressive mid-game skirmishes, prioritize team fights over objective control, or if FURIA's high-pressure playstyle leads to extended engagements. LYON's historical tendency for volatile team fights may also contribute to higher kill counts.
A bearish outcome (under 28 kills) may occur if the match devolves into a slow-paced, objective-focused game where teams prioritize Baron/Dragon control over kills, or if either team secures an early lead and stifles opponent aggression. Low-tier drafts or poor early-game coordination could also suppress kill totals.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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