Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unforeseen match delays or cancellations affecting resolution criteria
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:02:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,425,316
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 1. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 1 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'First Blood in Game 1' between LYON and FURIA Esports is evenly split at 50%, reflecting no clear favorite for securing the initial kill in the Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 of the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Uncertainty stems from balanced team performance trends and lack of decisive pre-event data.
LYON could secure first blood if their early-game aggression and lane dominance in the draft phase (e.g., strong jungler or top-lane matchup) outpaces FURIA's defensive playstyle. Historical data shows LYON has a slight edge in early-game objective control in similar matchups, which may translate to first blood success.
FURIA may secure first blood due to their strong early-game coordination and tendency to secure early kills in high-pressure tournaments, particularly against teams with less experienced laners. Their recent form in international events suggests they adapt quickly to opponent drafts, favoring their aggressive playstyle.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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