Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match forfeiture or cancellation due to unforeseen circumstances
Calibrated 100% · raw 500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:45:31 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
60%
ORYN Consensus
65%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
3.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 550.0¢
Entry: 56-62
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
90 points
This market is about whether both teams slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 3. In League of Legends, elemental dragons (Infernal, Mountain, Ocean, Hextech, Chemtech, and Cloud) spawn in the dragon pit starting at 5:00 game time. After being slain, the next dragon spawns 5 minutes later. Once a team claims the Dragon Soul (by slaying four dragons), all subsequent dragon spawns become Elder Dragons. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both G2 Esports and Top Esports each slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 3. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay any elemental dragon during Game 3. Only elemental dragons count toward this market — Elder Dragon kills do not count. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 3 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 3 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 3 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 3 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain at least one elemental dragon prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 3 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 64.5% probability that both G2 Esports and Top Esports will slay at least one elemental dragon in Game 3 of their series. The resolution depends on in-game actions during the match, with clear criteria for forfeits, cancellations, or incomplete games.
Both teams are historically strong in dragon control, with G2 having a 68% dragon kill rate in recent matches and Top Esports showing aggressive early-game strategies that often secure elemental dragons. The meta favors early dragon objectives, increasing the likelihood of multiple elemental dragon slays.
Game 3 may prioritize other objectives (e.g., Baron Nashor or early towers) over dragons, reducing the number of elemental dragons slain. Either team could also adopt a passive playstyle, avoiding dragon pits entirely. Disruptions like early surrender or technical issues could also invalidate the condition.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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