Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond 7 days
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:01:10 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,425,316
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and T1 in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 4:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 4 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a near-even chance (50%) for either Bilibili Gaming or T1 to secure the first blood in Game 4 of their Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match at MSI Playoffs. The resolution hinges on the outcome of a single in-game event, making the probability highly sensitive to match dynamics.
Bilibili Gaming's aggressive early-game strategies and strong laners (e.g., top or jungle) could secure first blood early in Game 4, especially if they exploit T1's potential mid-game weaknesses or misplays. Their recent form in similar high-stakes matches suggests they are capable of capitalizing on early opportunities.
T1's historical dominance in early-game skirmishes and their reputation for disciplined laning could allow them to secure first blood, particularly if Bilibili Gaming's aggression backfires or if T1's mid/jungle players outmaneuver their opponents in the opening phases.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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