Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected bans/picks altering early-game dynamics
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:01:04 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,425,316
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and T1 in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 4:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 2. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 2 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'First Blood in Game 2' between Bilibili Gaming and T1 at the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs remains evenly split, reflecting no clear favorite for securing the first kill in the second game. Historical performance and current meta trends do not provide a decisive edge for either team in this specific scenario.
Bilibili Gaming (BLG) could secure first blood due to their aggressive early-game strategies and strong laning phase, particularly if their top laner (e.g., 369) and mid laner (e.g., XUN) dominate their lanes. BLG's tendency to draft champions with strong early skirmishing potential (e.g., Renekton, LeBlanc) may favor this outcome.
T1, known for their disciplined playstyle and strong objective control, could secure first blood through precise jungle pathing and coordinated early skirmishes, especially if their jungler (e.g., Oner) and support (e.g., Keria) outmaneuver BLG's laners. T1's flexibility in drafting (e.g., Lee Sin, Pantheon) reduces reliance on early-game dominance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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