Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match abandonment or cancellation
Calibrated 100% · raw 4995% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 12:56:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
-50.0
Opportunity
35.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated Markets: Tennis Handicap vs Economic/Political Events
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4995.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
4 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Federico Arnaboldi and Filiberto Fumagalli in the ITF Bergamo, originally scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Arnaboldi" if Federico Arnaboldi wins by 2 or more sets than Filiberto Fumagalli, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Fumagalli." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ITF results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market is evenly split between Federico Arnaboldi (-1.5) and Filiberto Fumagalli (+1.5) in their ITF Bergamo tennis match, reflecting no clear favorite. The handicap implies equal expectation of a two-set differential win or a narrower margin.
Arnaboldi’s bull case hinges on his ability to dominate the match with a strong serve and aggressive baseline play, securing a straight-sets or two-set win. A potential underdog narrative or recent form upswing could also drive sentiment toward his handicap.
Fumagalli’s bear case assumes Arnaboldi struggles with consistency or faces an unexpected tactical adjustment from Fumagalli, leading to a close match where the handicap is not met. External factors like weather delays or fatigue could also favor the underdog.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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