Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Premature dissolution due to coalition fractures
AI updated 6/28/2026, 8:45:15 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
21%
ORYN Consensus
21%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,280,704
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 18-24
—
Resolution
15d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between January 27 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 21% probability to the Israeli Knesset being dissolved by July 15, 2026. This low probability reflects the current political stability in Israel, despite ongoing governance challenges.
A coalition collapse or major legislative failure could trigger early elections before July 15. If Prime Minister Netanyahu's government faces a no-confidence vote or key partners withdraw support, dissolution becomes plausible.
Israel’s government may avoid dissolution through tactical adjustments or external pressure mitigation. A stable coalition, delayed crises, or strategic concessions could prevent early elections within the timeframe.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
