This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Data revision risk: Wunderground finalized data may differ from preliminary forecasts by ±1°C
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:37:31 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects a 50% probability that the highest temperature in Zhengzhou on May 20, 2026, will reach 19°C, with resolution based on finalized Wunderground data. The binary outcome hinges on historical temperature trends and seasonal climate patterns for Zhengzhou in late May.
A bullish outcome (19°C) aligns with Zhengzhou's historical late-May averages (18-22°C) and potential early-season warming trends. Persistent high-pressure systems or heatwave conditions could push temperatures to or above 19°C, supported by recent climate data showing increasing spring temperatures in North China.
A bearish outcome (below 19°C) is plausible given Zhengzhou's spring variability, with late May often experiencing cooler spells or rainfall disrupting warming trends. Historical data shows temperatures below 18°C in ~30% of late May days, and unseasonable cold fronts could suppress the high to 18°C or lower.
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Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 19°C on May 20? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
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