Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revision risks (Wunderground updates post-resolution cutoff)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:00:28 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
23%
ORYN Consensus
23%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Norway vs. France
correlates · strength 60%
Temperature in Los Angeles
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 20-26
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low probability (23%) that Los Angeles International Airport will record its highest temperature on June 26, 2026, within the 72-73°F range. Historical temperature trends for late June in LA indicate higher likelihoods of temperatures exceeding this narrow range.
A bullish outcome would require atypical weather patterns, such as a marine layer or cloud cover suppressing peak temperatures. If a rare cold front or persistent onshore flow occurs, the 72-73°F range could be plausible, aligning with early monsoon suppression or unseasonable coastal fog.
The bearish case is stronger given LA's late June climatology, where average highs are typically 75-80°F with frequent spikes above 85°F. The narrow 72-73°F range is statistically unlikely unless extreme weather anomalies (e.g., tropical storm remnants or persistent drizzle) disrupt normal patterns.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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