This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: early-season forecast uncertainty
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:39:51 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Jinan's highest temperature on May 21, 2026, currently stands at 50%, indicating maximal uncertainty. Historical temperature trends suggest a moderate probability of exceeding 34°C, but early-season forecasts introduce volatility.
Jinan frequently experiences late-spring heatwaves, with May historically seeing max temperatures reaching 34°C or higher in ~40% of years. Persistent high-pressure systems or anomalous warm air advection could push temperatures above this threshold.
May is early in the season for extreme heat, and late-spring cold fronts may suppress temperatures below 34°C. Climatologically, Jinan's May averages hover around 28-30°C, reducing the likelihood of exceeding 34°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 34°C or higher on May 21? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
