This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: long-range forecast unreliability (30+ days out)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:38:23 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Jinan's highest temperature on May 21, 2026, is evenly split at 50%, reflecting high uncertainty due to long-term forecasting challenges and seasonal variability in the region.
A bullish outcome (≤24°C) could materialize if a late-season cold snap or persistent cloud cover suppresses daytime heating, or if monsoon patterns delay seasonal warming in northern China.
A bearish outcome (>24°C) may occur if pre-summer heatwave conditions develop early, driven by high-pressure systems or dry, sunny conditions typical of late May in Shandong Province.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 24°C or below on May 21? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
