This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Data revision risk from Wunderground post-resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:35:37 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects a 50% probability that Jinan's highest temperature on May 20, 2026, will reach 19°C. This is a binary outcome tied to historical temperature precision at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station.
Climate trends suggest rising temperatures in northern China, with Jinan experiencing warmer-than-average May days. A 19°C high aligns with recent historical averages for late May, supported by persistent high-pressure systems or warm air advection from the south.
Late spring in Jinan often features variable temperatures, with cooler spells possible due to cold air masses from the north or persistent cloud cover. Historical data shows a non-trivial chance of highs below 19°C, especially if La Niña conditions persist into May 2026.
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Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 19°C on May 20? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
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