This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Late revisions to historical temperature data (post-resolution)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:35:28 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Jinan's highest temperature on May 20, 2026, is evenly split between 'Yes' (18°C) and 'No' outcomes, reflecting significant uncertainty due to seasonal variability and measurement precision constraints. Historical climate data for Jinan in late May suggests temperatures typically range between 16°C and 24°C, with 18°C being a plausible but not guaranteed peak.
A 'Yes' resolution could occur if a persistent cloud cover or a late-season cold front suppresses daytime warming, aligning with regional climate models predicting cooler-than-average temperatures for northern China in May 2026. Additionally, localized microclimatic effects in urban Jinan (e.g., reduced heat island effect) might contribute to a lower peak temperature.
A 'No' resolution is plausible if a high-pressure system establishes over the region, leading to clear skies and strong solar insolation, pushing temperatures toward the upper end of the historical range (20-24°C). Regional climate trends favoring warmer spring seasons in East Asia further support this outcome.
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Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 18°C on May 20? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
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