This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:16:15 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
18%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates a low probability (17.55%) that Helsinki will reach 22°C on June 29, 2026, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns. The likelihood is tempered by the region's maritime climate, which typically limits extreme heat in late June.
A bullish scenario could unfold if a strong high-pressure system brings warm continental air from Eastern Europe or Russia, coupled with clear skies and low wind speeds. Anomalous warming trends due to climate change could also push temperatures above historical averages.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Helsinki's maritime climate, where June temperatures rarely exceed 20-21°C. Cloud cover, oceanic influence, or a late-season cold front could suppress temperatures below the 22°C threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 17.6% while ORYN AI estimates 17.6%.
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