This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions by Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 10:31:23 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
-1.3
Opportunity
1.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 3.25% probability that Amsterdam Schiphol Airport will record a high temperature of 27°C on June 29, 2026, based on historical climate data and current forecasting models. This is significantly below the climatological average, suggesting low confidence in such a high temperature occurring.
A high of 27°C is plausible if a strong high-pressure system brings warm air from southern Europe or North Africa, combined with clear skies and low wind speeds. Unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or a delayed start to the European summer could also elevate temperatures beyond typical June norms.
The probability remains low due to Amsterdam's maritime climate, which typically limits high temperatures in late June to the low-to-mid 20s°C. Persistent cloud cover, maritime air masses, or unseasonably cool ocean currents could suppress temperatures further, making 27°C highly unlikely.
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Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 4.5% while ORYN AI estimates 3.3%.
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