This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution deadline
Calibrated 100% · raw 180% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:00:35 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+1.8
Opportunity
1.5
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a low probability (3.05%) that Amsterdam's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will be 21°C or below, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns. This suggests an expectation of warmer-than-cooler conditions for that date.
A bullish scenario could materialize if unseasonably cool weather persists due to persistent cloud cover, Atlantic air masses, or unusual meteorological conditions. Historical data shows occasional dips in late June temperatures, though these are rare.
The bear case aligns with climatological norms, where late June in Amsterdam typically sees highs around 21-23°C. Persistent high-pressure systems or heatwaves could push temperatures above this threshold, making the 21°C-or-below outcome unlikely.
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Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or below on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.3% while ORYN AI estimates 3.1%.
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