Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate variability and extreme weather events
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 5:30:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 37% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
46%
ORYN Consensus
44%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,697,790
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 43-48
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Amsterdam's highest temperature reaching 23°C on July 4, 2026, stands at 45.50%. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest moderate likelihood, but variability in weather patterns introduces uncertainty.
Amsterdam's average July highs range between 21-24°C, with July 4 historically averaging around 22°C. A warm front or high-pressure system could push temperatures to 23°C, supported by recent warming trends in the Netherlands.
July 4, 2026, may not meet the 23°C threshold due to unseasonably cool conditions, persistent cloud cover, or Atlantic weather patterns. Recent years have seen occasional cooler Julys, reducing the probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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