Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Macroeconomic uncertainty (recession risks, inflation)
Calibrated 100% · raw 500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 10:46:31 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
55%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
3.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 500.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for GOOGL closing above $335 in the week of June 29 shows a neutral probability (50%), reflecting balanced expectations. Price action will hinge on macroeconomic data, AI sector sentiment, and Alphabet's near-term earnings guidance.
GOOGL could exceed $335 if AI-related revenue growth accelerates, cloud demand remains robust, or broader tech sentiment improves due to favorable Fed policy. Strong quarterly earnings or analyst upgrades could trigger a short-term rally.
GOOGL may fail to surpass $335 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., inflation, recession fears) dampen tech valuations. Regulatory risks, weaker-than-expected ad revenue, or a broad market sell-off could pressure the stock.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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