Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injury or tactical substitution limiting Guimarães' playing time
Calibrated 100% · raw 500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:45:43 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
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ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
3.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Inverse relationship with Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?: A low crude oil price could indicate a stable global economy, potentially leading to increased sports viewership and engagement, which might positively impact player performance, such as Bruno Guimarães' assists.
correlates · strength 60%
No direct relationship with Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?, Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?, Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?, or Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?: These markets are unrelated to Bruno Guimarães' performance or the sports industry.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,093,189
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 500.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
10 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bruno Guimarães records more than 1.5 assists within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "No" if Bruno Guimarães records 1.5 assists or fewer within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Assists are counted only if credited to Bruno Guimarães in the official match statistics. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If Bruno Guimarães is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (9.5%) of Bruno Guimarães recording 2+ assists in Brazil's FIFA World Cup match against Japan. The outcome hinges on his role in Brazil's midfield and tactical setup, with historical assist rates and defensive structures of Japan as key considerations.
Guimarães is a creative midfielder with a high assist rate (0.3 assists per 90 in 2023/24 club season) and Brazil's attacking system often relies on wing play, increasing his chances of contributing assists. Japan's defensive frailties in recent matches (e.g., conceding 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 games) may create high-pressing scenarios where counterattacks lead to assists.
Guimarães may be deployed in a deeper midfield role, reducing his assist opportunities. Japan's compact defensive structure (avg. 1.2 goals conceded per game in 2024) limits high-probability chances, and Brazil's reliance on Vinícius Jr. and Rodrygo may limit service to Guimarães. Past World Cup data shows midfielders average 0.1 assists per 90, lowering expectations.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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