Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries to key players
Calibrated 100% · raw 205% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:01:09 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.7
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Inversely related to Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?: Australia's economy is heavily influenced by commodity prices, including crude oil. A decrease in oil prices could negatively impact Australia's economy, thus potentially affecting the spread.
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?, Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?, Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?, Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?: These markets are unrelated to the spread of an Australian event.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
962,552
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -205.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
5d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
26 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 3 at 2:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Australia" if Australia win the game by 5 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Egypt". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Australia (-4.5) in the upcoming FIFA World Cup game on July 3 at 2:00 PM ET reflects a low probability (5.05%) of Australia winning by 5 or more goals, indicating skepticism about a dominant Australian victory.
Australia could win convincingly by 5+ goals if they dominate possession, exploit Egypt's defensive vulnerabilities, and capitalize on set-piece opportunities, potentially leveraging their stronger squad depth and recent form.
The market suggests a low probability due to Egypt's defensive resilience, Australia's inconsistent offensive performance, or potential tactical adjustments by Egypt to neutralize Australia's strengths, leading to a closer match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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