Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Game cancellation or delay beyond resolution window
AI updated 7/1/2026, 1:00:53 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,209,127
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market is about whether both teams kill Roshan at least once during Game 2. Roshan is a powerful neutral boss in Dota 2 that spawns at the start of the game and respawns 8–11 minutes after each death, dropping the Aegis of the Immortal and other valuable items. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Team Spirit and MOUZ each kill Roshan at least once during Game 2. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not kill Roshan during Game 2. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 2 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed and ends via forfeit, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had killed Roshan prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for 'Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan?' is currently at 50.00%, indicating no clear consensus on whether both Team Spirit and MOUZ will kill Roshan at least once during the game. The neutral probability reflects balanced expectations due to the inherent uncertainty of Dota 2 gameplay and the specific conditions required for resolution.
The bull case suggests both teams are likely to engage with Roshan early, especially if the game is balanced or if the teams prioritize objective control. Team Spirit and MOUZ may both aim to secure Roshan kills to gain item advantages or momentum, particularly in a high-stakes match where every advantage counts.
The bear case argues that either team may avoid Roshan or fail to secure a kill due to strategic decisions, poor execution, or external factors like early game dominance by one team. One or both teams might focus on lane control or early aggression, delaying or skipping Roshan engagements entirely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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