Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Incomplete or canceled game scenarios (resolution defaults to 50-50)
Calibrated 100% · raw 500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 10:15:49 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
-5.0
Opportunity
3.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,920,919
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -500.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market is about whether any player achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 1. In Dota 2, an Ultra Kill occurs when a single player kills 4 enemy heroes in rapid succession without dying. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 1. This market will resolve to "No" if no player achieves an Ultra Kill. A Rampage (5 kills in rapid succession) also counts as an Ultra Kill having occurred for the purposes of this market. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed and ends via forfeit, this market will resolve based on whether an Ultra Kill occurred prior to stoppage. If no Ultra Kill occurred, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Any Player Ultra Kill in Game 1' is currently at 50%, indicating no clear consensus on whether an Ultra Kill will occur. The probability reflects the inherent uncertainty of the event, given the rarity of Ultra Kills in Dota 2 games.
An Ultra Kill is plausible due to the high skill ceiling of professional Dota 2 players, where exceptional mechanical prowess and team coordination could lead to a player securing 4 kills in rapid succession. Meta shifts favoring aggressive playstyles or specific hero picks (e.g., high mobility carries) may increase the likelihood of such an event.
Ultra Kills are statistically rare in professional matches, with most games concluding without a single instance. The defensive capabilities of modern supports, crowd control mechanics, and team coordination make it difficult for a single player to dominate to that extent in a short timeframe.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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