Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match forfeit or cancellation before resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 4900% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 10:15:51 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-49.0
Opportunity
36.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,921,324
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4900.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
2h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market is about whether any player achieves a Rampage during Game 1. In Dota 2, a Rampage occurs when a single player kills all 5 enemy heroes in rapid succession without dying. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves a Rampage during Game 1. This market will resolve to "No" if no player achieves a Rampage. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed and ends via forfeit, this market will resolve based on whether a Rampage occurred prior to stoppage. If no Rampage occurred, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for a Rampage in Game 1 of a Dota 2 match is evenly split at 50%, reflecting high uncertainty due to the rarity of the event. The resolution framework is robust, accounting for match cancellations, delays, and forfeits with default 50-50 outcomes.
A Rampage is plausible if either team has a dominant player (e.g., carry or midlaner) with high kill participation and low death rate. Early-game snowballing or a team fight collapse could create the conditions for a single-player rampage.
The historical rarity of Rampages (less than 1% of games) and the need for near-perfect execution by one player make this outcome unlikely. Team coordination and counterplay (e.g., buyback, buyback denial) further reduce the probability.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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