Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_abandonment
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:17:16 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Pak Falcon CC Vihren and Young Bulgarian Stars scheduled for 2026-06-29 in ECS Bulgaria. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Pak Falcon CC Vihren will be considered correct if Pak Falcon CC Vihren is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Young Bulgarian Stars will be considered correct if Young Bulgarian Stars is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. In all other cases - including where the toss and match winners differ, or where no match winner is recorded - the market will resolve to "Draw". DLS/DRS adjustments, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, Super Over, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a match winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the tiebreak winner will be considered the match winner for this market. If the match ends tied with no tiebreak used or available, no team will be considered to have won the match and the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without an official match winner being declared, the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and will then resolve as described above.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 50% chance that Pak Falcon CC Vihren wins both the toss and the match against Young Bulgarian Stars on 2026-06-29 in ECS Bulgaria. The outcome hinges on two independent events: the coin toss and the match result, with a 'Draw' resolving if either team wins only one or neither.
Pak Falcon CC Vihren has a strong chance of winning both the toss and the match due to superior team performance, favorable conditions, or historical dominance over Young Bulgarian Stars. A skilled captain or key player in-form could tip the balance in their favor.
Young Bulgarian Stars may upset expectations by winning the toss and leveraging home advantage or tactical brilliance to secure victory. Weather disruptions, umpire decisions, or unexpected player absences could also derail Pak Falcon CC Vihren's prospects.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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