Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Token launch delay or failure by Dec 31, 2027
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:00:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
498d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Cap's governance token FDV exceeding $800M one day post-launch shows extremely low probability (1.60%), indicating minimal market confidence in such an outcome. The high threshold and short timeframe make this a high-risk, low-reward scenario.
Cap's token launch could exceed $800M FDV if it gains rapid adoption due to strong pre-launch hype, strategic partnerships, or innovative features attracting institutional and retail investors. A successful launch with high liquidity and speculative demand could drive price appreciation.
The likelihood of Cap's FDV surpassing $800M one day after launch is minimal due to the token's unproven demand, potential regulatory hurdles, or market saturation. A failed launch, low liquidity, or negative sentiment could prevent such valuation.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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