Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data stream latency or errors
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:46:05 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
51%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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The outcome of Will Bitcoin close above $60,000 at the end of Mar 2024? may be influenced by the result of Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
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Bitcoin's short-term volatility may influence the outcome of Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
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The success of Bitcoin reaching $30,000 in 2023 may be linked to the probability of Bitcoin closing above $60,000 at the end of March 2024
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 48-54
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin's price movement between 3:25PM-3:30PM ET on June 26 shows a near-even split, with a slight bullish bias at 50.50%. The outcome hinges on Chainlink's BTC/USD data stream, emphasizing short-term volatility rather than broader market trends.
Bitcoin could rise if institutional demand spikes during the final minutes of the trading window, or if a last-minute positive macroeconomic signal (e.g., Fed dovishness) triggers algorithmic buying. Short-term momentum from derivatives markets (e.g., futures expiries) may also favor an upward move.
Bitcoin may decline if profit-taking occurs in the final minutes, or if a sudden negative headline (e.g., regulatory crackdown, exchange issues) causes a brief sell-off. Low liquidity in the final minutes could amplify price swings in either direction.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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