Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Incomplete match data or lack of recent Challenger-level encounters
Calibrated 100% · raw 4795% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 12:45:42 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
-48.0
Opportunity
31.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,748,588
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -4795.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Yosuke Watanuki and Andre Ilagan in the Cary, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the total sets in the Yosuke Watanuki vs. Andre Ilagan match is evenly split, with a slight lean toward 'Over' (50.95%). The neutral probability reflects uncertainty due to limited matchup history and the players' recent form.
Watanuki and Ilagan are both aggressive baseliners with high first-serve percentages, increasing the likelihood of extended rallies and more sets. Their head-to-head history (if any) or surface preferences (clay/hard) could favor longer matches, supporting the 'Over' outcome.
Both players may have strong serve dominance or quick-strike games, leading to shorter matches with fewer sets. Fatigue or injury concerns could also truncate the match, favoring the 'Under' outcome. Limited ATP Challenger data for both may reduce confidence in extended play.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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