Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond 7 days (resolves 50-50)
Calibrated 100% · raw 4445% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:15:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
+44.5
Opportunity
33.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,857,861
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4445.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
11 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Leo Raquillet and Marko Topo in the Troyes, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Raquillet" if Leo Raquillet wins by 2 or more sets than Marko Topo, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Topo." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market favors Marko Topo (+1.5) to overcome a handicap and win the tennis match against Leo Raquillet, with a 44.5% probability assigned to Raquillet covering the spread. The outcome hinges on Raquillet winning by at least two sets.
Raquillet’s strength lies in his ability to dominate sets, possibly due to superior endurance or surface adaptability. A strong serve or consistent baseline play could enable him to exceed the -1.5 handicap, especially if Topo struggles with consistency or suffers early-set fatigue.
Topo’s odds benefit from the handicap, suggesting he is perceived as the more likely winner in a straight match. Raquillet may lack the form or mental resilience to overcome the deficit, particularly if Topo adapts well to match conditions or exploits Raquillet’s weaknesses.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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