Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond 7 days
Calibrated 100% · raw 1035% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:30:51 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
85%
ORYN Consensus
74%
Signal Score
-10.3
Opportunity
8.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,117,436
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -1035.0¢
Entry: 82-88
—
Resolution
5d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Pedro Sakamoto and Alan Magadan in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market favors 'Over' for total sets (3+) between Pedro Sakamoto and Alan Magadan at 74.45% probability, indicating a high expectation of an extended match. The Quito Challenger event and players' historical tendencies suggest a possible multi-set encounter.
Sakamoto and Magadan are both known for their endurance and clay-court proficiency, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged match exceeding 2.5 sets. A super tiebreaker would also count as a set, further boosting the 'Over' probability.
If either player dominates early or the match is shortened due to weather or injury, the total sets could fall under 3, favoring 'Under.' A quick straight-set victory (2-0) would resolve the market in the 'Under' direction.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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