Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_or_delay_beyond_resolution_window
Calibrated 100% · raw 495% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:30:46 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,118,159
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 495.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
5d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Pedro Sakamoto and Alan Magadan in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Sakamoto” if Pedro Sakamoto wins set 2. It will resolve to “Magadan” if Alan Magadan wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Set 2 Winner: Sakamoto vs Magadan' remains highly uncertain with minimal trading activity, reflecting negligible confidence in either player's dominance. The extreme low probability (0.05%) suggests near-total indifference or lack of actionable information among participants.
Pedro Sakamoto could win set 2 if he leverages his recent clay-court performance or exploits Alan Magadan's weaker backhand, particularly if Magadan struggles with early break points. A strong first-set performance by Sakamoto might psychologically pressure Magadan, increasing Sakamoto's chances of clinching set 2.
Alan Magadan may dominate set 2 if he capitalizes on his superior serve-and-volley game, which could exploit Sakamoto's baseline tendencies. Persistent fatigue or injury concerns for Sakamoto, if unresolved, could tilt the odds in Magadan's favor. Weather or court conditions favoring Magadan's aggressive style could further reduce Sakamoto's chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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