Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_injury_or_withdrawal
Calibrated 100% · raw 3045% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:15:33 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
70%
Signal Score
-30.4
Opportunity
21.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,857,861
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3045.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Marvin Moeller and Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski in the Troyes, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Moeller” if Marvin Moeller wins the first set. It will resolve to “Lechno-Wasiutynski” if Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
As of the latest data, Marvin Moeller holds a 69.50% probability of winning the first set against Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski in their scheduled tennis match. This reflects a strong market preference favoring Moeller's performance.
Moeller's higher market probability (69.50%) suggests his superior form, recent performance trends, or potential advantages in playing conditions (e.g., surface suitability). A win would align with his projected dominance in the matchup.
Lechno-Wasiutynski's 30.50% implied probability indicates a non-trivial chance of an upset, possibly due to Moeller's vulnerabilities, Lechno-Wasiutynski's underdog resilience, or external factors like weather or injury affecting Moeller.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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