Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match cancellation or delay beyond resolution criteria
AI updated 6/30/2026, 7:45:29 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
23%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,857,861
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 90.0¢
Entry: 20-26
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
6 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Maestrelli and Ognjen Milic in the Brasov, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Maestrelli" if Francesco Maestrelli wins by 2 or more sets than Ognjen Milic, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Milic." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market favors Ognjen Milic (+1.5) over Francesco Maestrelli (-1.5) in their tennis match, with Milic having a 76.5% implied probability of winning by a margin of at least 2 sets or securing a narrower victory. The handicap suggests Maestrelli is favored to lose by at least one set, but not necessarily win outright.
Maestrelli could exceed expectations by winning the match outright or by a margin of exactly 1 set, which would trigger a 'Milic' resolution. If Maestrelli is in better form than his ATP ranking suggests or if Milic underperforms, this outcome becomes plausible.
Milic is heavily favored due to his handicap (+1.5), meaning he only needs to win by 1 set or lose by 2 sets to resolve the market in his favor. His higher ATP ranking and potential home advantage in Brasov further support this outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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