Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: late_withdrawal_or_injury
Calibrated 100% · raw 9990% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 10:15:31 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 45% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
100%
Signal Score
+99.9
Opportunity
97.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,347,128
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 9990.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
11 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Marko Topo and Lorenzo Giustino in the Troyes, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Topo" if Marko Topo wins by 2 or more sets than Lorenzo Giustino, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Giustino." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market heavily favors Lorenzo Giustino (+1.5) over Marko Topo (-1.5) in their upcoming tennis match, with Giustino having a 99.95% implied probability of winning by the specified handicap criteria. The extreme odds suggest strong market confidence in Giustino's superiority.
Marko Topo could overcome the handicap if he demonstrates exceptional form, outperforming expectations against Giustino. A dominant Topo performance (e.g., straight sets win) would validate the market's current low probability. External factors like Giustino's injury or fatigue could also shift dynamics.
Lorenzo Giustino's overwhelming market probability reflects his likely dominance under standard conditions. Any disruption (e.g., Topo's unexpected peak performance, Giustino's injury) could still alter outcomes, but the current consensus favors Giustino overwhelmingly. The 50-50 resolution triggers are highly unlikely given the match's scheduling.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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