This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on June 26 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Key risk: Regulatory or legal challenges (e.g., antitrust actions)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:16:05 PM
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on June 26 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
88%
Signal Score
-11.5
Opportunity
9.8
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market strongly favors Amazon (AMZN) closing above $225 on June 26, with an 88.45% probability. This reflects robust bullish sentiment driven by recent performance trends and market conditions.
AMZN's strong Q1 2024 earnings (revenue +12.5% YoY, net income +28%) and cloud growth (AWS revenue +17%) support upward momentum. Analyst upgrades (e.g., Goldman Sachs to $230 target) and AI-driven revenue streams (e.g., AI services, cloud infrastructure) reinforce the bullish outlook. Seasonal retail trends (Prime Day prep) may further boost sentiment.
Macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., inflation, Fed policy uncertainty) could dampen consumer spending and cloud demand. Regulatory risks (e.g., antitrust scrutiny) or operational challenges (e.g., logistics costs) may pressure margins. A broader market correction could drag AMZN below $225 despite fundamentals.
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Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $225 on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 100% while ORYN AI estimates 88.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
