Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Thorbjornsen's career trajectory and consistency in major tournaments
AI updated 7/1/2026, 9:00:25 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,569,173
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -15.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
15 points
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 John Deere Classic tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the John Deere Classic tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the John Deere Classic tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by July 11, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Michael Thorbjornsen winning the 2026 John Deere Classic is priced at 1.65%, indicating very low confidence in his victory. As a PGA Tour event, the tournament's competitive field and Thorbjornsen's current form contribute to this low probability.
Thorbjornsen could pull off a surprise victory if he performs exceptionally well in 2025-2026, capitalizing on favorable course conditions or a weaker-than-expected field. A breakthrough performance in early 2026 or a strong finish in 2025 could improve his odds.
Thorbjornsen's historical performance and current ranking suggest he is unlikely to win a PGA Tour event like the John Deere Classic. The field is highly competitive, and his lack of recent wins or top-10 finishes reduces his chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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