Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Dahmen's historical inconsistency in tournaments
Calibrated 100% · raw 4740% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:18:01 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
+47.4
Opportunity
29.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,664,005
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4740.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 John Deere Classic tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the John Deere Classic tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the John Deere Classic tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by July 11, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Joel Dahmen winning the 2026 John Deere Classic shows a near-even split, with a 49.50% probability. This reflects moderate uncertainty given Dahmen's inconsistent recent performance and the competitive nature of PGA Tour events.
Joel Dahmen has shown flashes of brilliance in past tournaments, including a top-10 finish at the 2023 John Deere Classic. If he regains form and benefits from favorable course conditions, he could leverage his putting prowess to contend for the win. A strong preseason training regimen or swing adjustments might also improve his odds.
Dahmen has struggled with consistency, missing cuts in multiple recent events and lacking a PGA Tour victory since 2019. The John Deere Classic is highly competitive, with younger players and established veterans likely outperforming him. Injuries or off-form play could further diminish his chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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