Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Misalignment between market probability and actual tournament odds
Calibrated 100% · raw 4740% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:17:51 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
+47.4
Opportunity
34.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,663,605
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4740.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 John Deere Classic tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the John Deere Classic tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the John Deere Classic tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by July 11, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Hayden Springer winning the 2026 John Deere Classic is marginally bearish at 49.50%, indicating a near-even split in expectations. The resolution criteria heavily favor PGA Tour official outcomes, reducing speculative bias.
Hayden Springer has demonstrated consistent form in mid-tier PGA Tour events, with a recent top-10 finish at the 2025 John Deere Classic suggesting strong course familiarity. His mechanical swing and mental resilience under pressure could position him as a late-season contender.
Springer’s career win rate remains low (0.5% across 150+ PGA Tour starts), and his ranking (outside top 150) suggests limited elite-level competitiveness. The 2026 field is likely to include higher-ranked players with superior recent performances, diluting his chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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