Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High volatility in golf outcomes
Calibrated 100% · raw 4850% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:31:08 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+48.5
Opportunity
31.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4850.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 John Deere Classic tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the John Deere Classic tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the John Deere Classic tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by July 11, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for David Lipsky winning the 2026 John Deere Classic is nearly evenly split, with a 49.50% probability. The resolution hinges on Lipsky's performance in a single PGA Tour event, introducing significant uncertainty given the sport's unpredictable nature.
Lipsky's recent form shows consistent improvement, with top-20 finishes in multiple tournaments. His familiarity with the John Deere Classic course (where he has prior top-10 finishes) and his strong putting statistics could give him an edge. A favorable draw or weather conditions during the tournament could further favor his chances.
Golf is highly volatile, and Lipsky's lack of recent major tournament wins makes him a risky bet. Younger competitors or rising stars may outperform him, and injuries or personal issues could disrupt his preparation. The tournament field is deep, with many players in better form, reducing Lipsky's odds.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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