Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Emergence of a dominant rival player in the tournament
Calibrated 100% · raw 4895% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:17:34 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+49.0
Opportunity
30.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,663,605
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4895.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
16 points
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 John Deere Classic tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the John Deere Classic tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the John Deere Classic tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by July 11, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Adam Hadwin winning the 2026 John Deere Classic is highly competitive, with a 49.50% probability. The outcome hinges on Hadwin's performance relative to other contenders and potential tournament conditions.
Hadwin's recent form and experience on PGA Tour events suggest he is a strong contender for the 2026 John Deere Classic. His consistency in similar tournaments and potential course fit could favor his chances. If he maintains peak performance, he may secure the win.
Hadwin faces stiff competition from top-ranked players and rising stars in the 2026 season. Injuries, poor form, or unfavorable course conditions could hinder his performance, reducing his chances of winning. Historical volatility in his tournament outcomes also poses a risk.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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