Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unforeseen injury to a top seed
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:00:37 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
38%
ORYN Consensus
38%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,331,940
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 34-40
—
Resolution
13d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
11 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a player seeded number 10 or higher is defeated during the first round of the Men’s Singles main tournament in the 2026 Championships at Wimbledon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If an applicable match is started but not completed (e.g., abandoned without a result), or not played, this market will resolve to 50-50. A result by retirement or walkover counts as a completed match and will resolve "Yes" or "No" according to which player is credited the win under AELTC rules. If the Championships at Wimbledon are cancelled or postponed after July 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the AELTC and Wimbledon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assessing whether a top-10 seed will lose in the first round of Wimbledon 2026 Men’s Singles shows a 37.5% probability of 'Yes'. Historical data suggests top seeds rarely lose early, but upsets are not unprecedented.
A top-10 seed could lose in the first round due to fatigue, injury, or unexpected form slumps. Recent tournaments (e.g., 2022 Wimbledon) saw seeds like Casper Ruud (No. 5) fall early, validating the possibility of upsets.
Top seeds are statistically resilient in Grand Slam first rounds, with only ~5-10% of top-10 seeds losing early in recent years. The prestige and preparation of Wimbledon may further reduce upset likelihood.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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