Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable audience behavior post-pandemic
AI updated 7/1/2026, 1:45:37 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,423,831
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to how much "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 3 - July 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for 'Young Washington' opening weekend box office gross (July 3-5) between $18M and $20M is evenly balanced at 50.00%, reflecting high uncertainty due to limited pre-release data. Historical performance of similar films and early tracking suggest moderate volatility in outcomes.
A bullish outcome could materialize if 'Young Washington' benefits from strong star power, favorable critic reviews, and robust marketing campaigns targeting patriotic-themed films during early July. Comparable releases like 'Hamilton' (2020) or '1776' (1972) demonstrate potential for mid-range box office success if timing aligns with holiday interest.
A bearish outcome may occur if the film suffers from weak audience appeal, negative word-of-mouth, or competition from major summer blockbusters like 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' or 'Despicable Me 4'. Poor tracking data or studio reports of underperforming previews could exacerbate declines.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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