This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Unforeseen safety incidents or regulatory backlash slowing expansion
AI updated 6/26/2026, 10:00:46 PM
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market suggests an even 50% probability that Waymo will operate in 32 or more cities by December 31, 2026. This reflects uncertainty about Waymo's expansion pace, balancing rapid growth potential with regulatory and operational hurdles.
Waymo could expand aggressively into 32+ cities by leveraging its first-mover advantage in autonomous ride-hailing, securing partnerships with major platforms like Uber, and accelerating regulatory approvals in key markets such as Texas, Florida, and Arizona. Continued investment from Alphabet may further fuel this growth.
Regulatory delays, safety concerns, or operational challenges in new markets could slow Waymo's expansion, limiting it to fewer than 32 cities by the deadline. High operational costs or competition from Tesla Robotaxi or other autonomous services may also constrain growth.
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Will Waymo operate in 32 or more cities on December 31 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 50%.
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