Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unforeseen safety incidents or regulatory backlash
Calibrated 100% · raw 6550% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:00:40 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
30%
ORYN Consensus
95%
Signal Score
+65.5
Opportunity
49.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,117,511
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 6550.0¢
Entry: 26-32
—
Resolution
183d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
12 points
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Waymo's expansion to 24-27 cities by December 31, 2026, is currently trading at 29.5%, indicating moderate skepticism about aggressive growth. The probability reflects challenges in scaling autonomous ride-hailing beyond core markets like Phoenix and San Francisco.
Waymo could rapidly expand to 24-27 cities by leveraging partnerships (e.g., Uber integration), regulatory approvals in new states (e.g., Texas, Florida), and technological advancements reducing operational costs. Urban markets with high ride-hailing demand (e.g., Austin, Miami) may see prioritized rollouts.
Regulatory hurdles, safety concerns, or capital constraints may slow expansion, limiting Waymo to fewer than 24 cities. Competition from traditional ride-hailing (Uber/Lyft) and autonomous vehicle rivals (Cruise) could divert resources, delaying broader deployment.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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