Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory delays or denials in major markets
Calibrated 100% · raw 950% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:00:35 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
13%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
+9.5
Opportunity
7.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,117,511
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 950.0¢
Entry: 10-16
—
Resolution
183d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
11 points
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low probability (22%) that Waymo will operate in 20-23 cities by December 31, 2026, indicating skepticism about rapid expansion. Expansion pace depends on regulatory approvals, operational scalability, and competitive dynamics in ride-hailing markets.
Waymo could expand to 20-23 cities by 2026 if it secures rapid regulatory approvals in key urban markets (e.g., New York, Chicago, or international hubs like Tokyo) and leverages partnerships with ride-hailing platforms like Uber. Strong demand for autonomous ride-hailing and successful scaling of operations in existing markets (e.g., Phoenix, San Francisco) would support this scenario.
Regulatory hurdles, safety concerns, or operational challenges may limit Waymo's expansion to fewer than 20 cities by 2026. Delays in obtaining permits for new markets or competition from traditional ride-hailing services could slow growth. Economic downturns or public backlash against autonomous vehicles might also constrain expansion.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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