This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: Regulatory delays or restrictive policies in Florida
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:32:28 PM
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
80%
Signal Score
+30.0
Opportunity
19.5
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Waymo's expansion into Tampa, FL by December 31, 2026 is uncertain, with a 50% market probability reflecting balanced risk-reward. The outcome hinges on regulatory approval, operational readiness, and competitive dynamics in the Sun Belt market.
Waymo leverages its Phoenix and San Francisco experience to rapidly deploy in Tampa, capitalizing on Florida's pro-autonomy regulations and warm climate. A public launch by 2026 is feasible if pilot programs scale successfully in 2025, with Tampa's growing tech workforce and urban sprawl providing ideal conditions for autonomous ride-hailing.
Regulatory hurdles, technical challenges in mixed traffic, or safety incidents could delay Waymo's Tampa entry. Competitive pressure from Cruise (post-2023 controversies) or traditional taxi firms may force Waymo to prioritize higher-density markets, leaving Tampa as a secondary target beyond 2026.
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Will Waymo launch in Tampa, FL by December 31 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 50% while ORYN AI estimates 80%.
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