Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory delays or denials from UK authorities
Calibrated 100% · raw 2800% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:02:08 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
44%
ORYN Consensus
16%
Signal Score
-28.0
Opportunity
23.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,491,394
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -2800.0¢
Entry: 40-46
—
Resolution
185d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
32 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Waymo's potential launch in London by December 31, 2026 is currently assessed as unlikely, with a market probability of 15.50%. Regulatory, logistical, and competitive challenges in the UK market significantly reduce feasibility within the timeframe.
Waymo could leverage its existing partnerships with Uber in the US to expand into London via a similar integration. Favorable regulatory adjustments by the UK's Department for Transport or Transport for London (TfL) could accelerate deployment timelines.
London's stringent autonomous vehicle regulations, high operational costs, and competition from established ride-hailing services (e.g., Uber, Bolt) may deter Waymo. Delays in regulatory approvals or safety concerns could push the launch beyond 2026.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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