Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential delay or absence of Netflix's Top 10 update by July 10, 2026
AI updated 7/1/2026, 8:15:20 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
1 points
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a low probability (2.35%) that 'Voicemails for Isabelle' will be the top US Netflix movie this week. The resolution hinges on Netflix's weekly US Top 10 ranking update, which may not reflect the movie's actual viewership performance accurately.
If 'Voicemails for Isabelle' gains unexpected viral traction through social media or word-of-mouth, it could surpass more established titles in the US Top 10 ranking. A strong marketing push by Netflix or the film's distributor could also drive its ranking.
The film may struggle to compete with high-profile releases or established franchises in the US Top 10 ranking. Low initial viewership or negative critical reception could prevent it from reaching the #1 spot.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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