Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Early election call reducing campaign time for outsiders
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 4:45:26 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
21%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
-2.5
Opportunity
2.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -250.0¢
Entry: 18-24
—
Resolution
254d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Vladan Đokić has an 18% probability of winning the next Serbian presidential election by May 2027, indicating a low chance relative to established candidates. His candidacy faces significant structural and political headwinds in Serbia's dominant-party system.
Đokić could capitalize on rising dissatisfaction with the ruling SNS party and attract urban, younger, or reformist voters seeking change. A fragmented opposition or unexpected scandals affecting frontrunners could create an upset opportunity.
Serbia's electoral system is heavily skewed toward the ruling SNS, with institutional advantages in media, resources, and incumbency. Đokić lacks widespread name recognition or a clear party apparatus to challenge established candidates like Vučić or potential successors.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
