Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Earnings pre-announcements disrupting momentum
Calibrated 100% · raw 455% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 8:15:57 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+4.5
Opportunity
4.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 455.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Tesla (TSLA) closing between $405-$410 during the week of Jun 22–26 shows extremely low probability (0.45%), indicating strong market consensus that this outcome is highly unlikely. Historical volatility and recent trends suggest TSLA is unlikely to remain within this tight range by week-end.
TSLA could close within $405-$410 if macroeconomic conditions stabilize, Fed rate cuts are priced in early, or positive earnings guidance is released before the close. A surprise rally in EV stocks or a short squeeze might also drive the price into this range.
TSLA is unlikely to close in this range due to persistent high volatility, potential profit-taking after recent rallies, or negative macroeconomic data (e.g., inflation, interest rates). Downside risks include regulatory headwinds or weaker-than-expected deliveries.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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