Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Delivery miss or lower-than-expected guidance
AI updated 6/30/2026, 3:15:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,048,288
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 35.0¢
Entry: 2-8
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Tesla (TSLA) closing between $385-$390 during the week of June 29–July 3 shows a low probability (5%) of resolution, indicating strong skepticism toward this price range. Historical volatility and external macroeconomic factors likely contribute to this conservative outlook.
Tesla could close within $385-$390 if strong Q2 deliveries (expected to exceed 400K vehicles), favorable regulatory tailwinds (e.g., EV tax credit extensions in the U.S.), or a broader tech rally lifts the stock. Additionally, if China’s EV market rebound accelerates or macroeconomic conditions ease, sentiment may improve.
The probability remains low due to Tesla’s recent underperformance, macro headwinds (high interest rates, recession fears), and potential delivery shortfalls. Regulatory scrutiny (e.g., Autopilot investigations) or geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade disputes) could further pressure the stock.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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